Oscar Update 3: My Predictions
March 4, 2010Well, this pretty much speaks for itself… I’m going to try to explain myself as best as I can for each of these, and I admit, I am VERY encouraged by the opinions of critics (because remember, this isn’t all my own opinion, I’m predicting what the ACADEMY would vote for), but, here goes nothing… Oh, before I do go ahead, I should probably warn you that there is not a single category where I have seen all of the nominations (and I hate myself for it). But, here we go anyways (in no specific order)!
Let’s start with the obscure ones (most of which, a random title makes me pick it):
Short Film (Live Action)
- “The Door” Juanita Wilson and James Flynn
- “Instead of Abracadabra” Patrik Eklund and Mathias Fjellström
- “Kavi” Gregg Helvey
- “Miracle Fish” Luke Doolan and Drew Bailey
- “The New Tenants” Joachim Back and Tivi Magnusson
My prediction: I’m just going to put my money on Miracle Fish, just because it sounds interesting.
Short Film (Animated):
- “French Roast” Fabrice O. Joubert
- “Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty” Nicky Phelan and Darragh O’Connell
- “The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte)” Javier Recio Gracia
- “Logorama” Nicolas Schmerkin
- “A Matter of Loaf and Death” Nick Park
My prediction: For the same reason as the last one, French Roast.
Documentary (Short Subject)
- “China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province” Jon Alpert and Matthew O’Neill
- “The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner” Daniel Junge and Henry Ansbacher
- “The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant” Steven Bognar and Julia Reichert
- “Music by Prudence” Roger Ross Williams and Elinor Burkett
- “Rabbit à la Berlin” Bartek Konopka and Anna Wydra
My prediction: China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province seems like the kind of thing that would attract the Academy, so that’s my guess.
Now, onto the categories that I can make a bit more of an estimated guess on:
Documentary (Feature)
- “Burma VJ” Anders Østergaard and Lise Lense-Møller
- “The Cove” Louie Psihoyos and Fisher Stevens
- “Food, Inc.” Robert Kenner and Elise Pearlstein
- “The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers” Judith Ehrlich and Rick Goldsmith
- “Which Way Home” Rebecca Cammisa
My prediction: Like in most years, I haven’t seen any of these, but I’m placing my money on The Cove, since I’ve heard the most about it and a lot of other predictions that I’ve been reading have been leaning towards it.
Visual Effects
- “Avatar” Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham and Andrew R. Jones
- “District 9” Dan Kaufman, Peter Muyzers, Robert Habros and Matt Aitken
- “Star Trek” Roger Guyett, Russell Earl, Paul Kavanagh and Burt Dalton
My prediction: I would laugh SO hard if this didn’t go to Avatar, but I’m pretty sure that one’s in the bag.
Sound Editing
- “Avatar” Christopher Boyes and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle
- “The Hurt Locker” Paul N.J. Ottosson
- “Inglourious Basterds” Wylie Stateman
- “Star Trek” Mark Stoeckinger and Alan Rankin
- “Up” Michael Silvers and Tom Myers
My prediction: This one tends to favor the loud, so, I’m going to say Avatar.
Sound Mixing
- “Avatar” Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Andy Nelson and Tony Johnson
- “The Hurt Locker” Paul N.J. Ottosson and Ray Beckett
- “Inglourious Basterds” Michael Minkler, Tony Lamberti and Mark Ulano
- “Star Trek” Anna Behlmer, Andy Nelson and Peter J. Devlin
- “Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen” Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers and Geoffrey Patterson
My prediction: I’m putting my money on The Hurt Locker, solely based on what I’ve heard.
Makeup
- “Il Divo” Aldo Signoretti and Vittorio Sodano
- “Star Trek” Barney Burman, Mindy Hall and Joel Harlow
- “The Young Victoria” Jon Henry Gordon and Jenny Shircore
My prediction: I’m going to say Star Trek, because it seems like the most likely, and I haven’t heard of Il Divo.
Film Editing
- “Avatar” Stephen Rivkin, John Refoua and James Cameron
- “District 9” Julian Clarke
- “The Hurt Locker” Bob Murawski and Chris Innis
- “Inglourious Basterds” Sally Menke
- “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” Joe Klotz
My prediction: As much as I would love to see this go to Inglourious, I’m saying that The Hurt Locker will take it.
Art Direction
- “Avatar” Art Direction: Rick Carter and Robert Stromberg; Set Decoration: Kim Sinclair
- “The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus” Art Direction: Dave Warren and Anastasia Masaro; Set Decoration: Caroline Smith
- “Nine” Art Direction: John Myhre; Set Decoration: Gordon Sim
- “Sherlock Holmes” Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
- “The Young Victoria” Art Direction: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Maggie Gray
My prediction: I guess this one’s going to Avatar as well, I mean, honestly, it’ll probably win anything visual as it is.
Costume Design
- “Bright Star” Janet Patterson
- “Coco before Chanel” Catherine Leterrier
- “The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus” Monique Prudhomme
- “Nine” Colleen Atwood
- “The Young Victoria” Sandy Powell
My prediction: I’m saying Nine, just because Colleen Atwood’s name is on it, and if I recall correctly, the Academy likes her stuff.
Music (Original Song)
- “Almost There” from “The Princess and the Frog” Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
- “Down in New Orleans” from “The Princess and the Frog” Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
- “Loin de Paname” from “Paris 36” Music by Reinhardt Wagner Lyric by Frank Thomas
- “Take It All” from “Nine” Music and Lyric by Maury Yeston
- “The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)” from “Crazy Heart” Music and Lyric by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett
My prediction: I’ve actually heard all of these! I mean really, since I CAN YouTube these songs to listen to them, why wouldn’t I? It gives me a more educated guess! I’m saying The Weary Kind. I have nothing against Randy Newman, I just thought that was the best song of the bunch.
Music (Original Score)
- “Avatar” James Horner
- “Fantastic Mr. Fox” Alexandre Desplat
- “The Hurt Locker” Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders
- “Sherlock Holmes” Hans Zimmer
- “Up” Michael Giacchino
My prediction: The score to Up is fantastic, so I’m easily placing my bet there.
Finally, on to what in my eyes, are the big contenders:
Foreign Language Film
- “Ajami” Israel
- “The Milk of Sorrow (La Teta Asustada)” Peru
- “A Prophet (Un Prophète)” France
- “The Secret in Their Eyes (El Secreto de Sus Ojos)” Argentina
- “The White Ribbon (Das Weisse Band)” Germany
My prediction: I haven’t seen any of these, but since it’s won a few in the past, and Michael Haneke is a DAMN good director, I’m saying The White Ribbon will take it.
Animated Feature Film
- “Coraline” Henry Selick
- “Fantastic Mr. Fox” Wes Anderson
- “The Princess and the Frog” John Musker and Ron Clements
- “The Secret of Kells” Tomm Moore
- “Up” Pete Docter
My prediction: Up was a fantastic movie, and the only way that I see it not winning is because of the fact that it’s nominated for Best Picture as well. Nevertheless, I think it’ll take this one easily.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
- “District 9” Written by Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell
- “An Education” Screenplay by Nick Hornby
- “In the Loop” Screenplay by Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche
- “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” Screenplay by Geoffrey Fletcher
- “Up in the Air” Screenplay by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner
My prediction: Up in the Air seems to be the best bet, seeing what’s happened over the past however many award ceremonies.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
- “The Hurt Locker” Written by Mark Boal
- “Inglourious Basterds” Written by Quentin Tarantino
- “The Messenger” Written by Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman
- “A Serious Man” Written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
- “Up” Screenplay by Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Story by Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Tom McCarthy
My prediction: Please let Inglourious Basterds win this one. It deserves it. Quentin Tarantino’s scripts are amazing!
Cinematography
- “Avatar” Mauro Fiore
- “Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince” Bruno Delbonnel
- “The Hurt Locker” Barry Ackroyd
- “Inglourious Basterds” Robert Richardson
- “The White Ribbon” Christian Berger
My prediction: I REALLY don’t want Avatar to take it, because honestly, it was mostly computer generated, and (from where I see it) camera work would be much less in comparison to the other 4 (kudos to White Ribbon for the nod, I might add), but, knowing the Academy, and the fact that it’s SUCH a groundbreaking visual piece, it’ll probably go to Avatar.
Directing
- “Avatar” James Cameron
- “The Hurt Locker” Kathryn Bigelow
- “Inglourious Basterds” Quentin Tarantino
- “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” Lee Daniels
- “Up in the Air” Jason Reitman
My prediction: If Cameron takes it, I will not be happy. However, if Kathryn Bigelow (who I think will win) wins, and the camera shows Cameron’s face when she wins, just to see his look of disapointment, I will be pleased. I’m not denying that he’s a decent director, I just think he needs to be knocked off his pedestal. That, and I really don’t want to have to sit through another one of his arrogant acceptance speeches.
Actor in a Supporting Role
- Matt Damon in “Invictus”
- Woody Harrelson in “The Messenger”
- Christopher Plummer in “The Last Station”
- Stanley Tucci in “The Lovely Bones”
- Christoph Waltz in “Inglourious Basterds”
My prediction: From where I see it, Christoph Waltz has had this bagged up for a while. Notice how eloquently he speaks when he accepts the Oscar, it’s fantastic!
Actress in a Supporting Role
- Penélope Cruz in “Nine”
- Vera Farmiga in “Up in the Air”
- Maggie Gyllenhaal in “Crazy Heart”
- Anna Kendrick in “Up in the Air”
- Mo’Nique in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
My prediction: Similarly to how Waltz has it locked up, Mo’Nique has this one locked up.
Actor in a Leading Role
- Jeff Bridges in “Crazy Heart”
- George Clooney in “Up in the Air”
- Colin Firth in “A Single Man”
- Morgan Freeman in “Invictus”
- Jeremy Renner in “The Hurt Locker”
My prediction: I have the feeling that Jeff Bridges will take it. I mean, he’s a great actor as it is, and this is apparently one of his best, so, I think that pretty much speaks for itself.
Actress in a Leading Role
- Sandra Bullock in “The Blind Side”
- Helen Mirren in “The Last Station”
- Carey Mulligan in “An Education”
- Gabourey Sidibe in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
- Meryl Streep in “Julie & Julia”
My prediction: Sandra’s won a lot already, and I wouldn’t be surprised if she took this one. However, Mulligan, Sidibe, or Streep (probably Sidibe of the 3) could upset it.
Best Picture
- “Avatar” James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers
- “The Blind Side” Gil Netter, Andrew A. Kosove and Broderick Johnson, Producers
- “District 9” Peter Jackson and Carolynne Cunningham, Producers
- “An Education” Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey, Producers
- “The Hurt Locker” Kathryn Bigelow, Mark Boal, Nicolas Chartier and Greg Shapiro, Producers
- “Inglourious Basterds” Lawrence Bender, Producer
- “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness and Gary Magness, Producers
- “A Serious Man” Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, Producers
- “Up” Jonas Rivera, Producer
- “Up in the Air” Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman and Jason Reitman, Producers
My prediction: Ah, the big one. This one, I’ll do in a process of elimination way.
The Blind Side won’t win because while it is something that the Academy tends to draw towards, it just doesn’t seem to hold up with the others.
Up won’t win because it’s nominated (and will hopefully win) Best Animated (though I do think that it was one of the best films of the year).
A Serious Man won’t win because it’s not the Coen Brother’s best (though it was a great script).
While it’s nice to see An Education there, it probably won’t win because it’s not very well known.
Once again, nice to see District 9 there. Probably won’t win, though, becuase when it comes to sci-fi, nothing seems to be beating Avatar.
Precious probably won’t win, because of the other contenders. Same goes for Up in the Air.
Unfortunately, Inglourious Basterds probably won’t win because the Academy doesn’t seem to like Tarantino all that much.
And that brings it down to Avatar and The Hurt Locker. Because this category is called “Best Picture”, and not “Best use of visuals without the means of an original script”, I’d like to see this go to The Hurt Locker.
An afternote:
Well, those are my predictions for what the Academy would vote for. However, if I could vote, I’d want Inglourious to win a lot more, like, cinematography, director, or even best picture. Also, I think that the fact that Where the Wild Things Are was snubbed completely is a travesty, since I think it was one of the best films of the year (and one of my all-time favorites). But, I guess it’s a good bunch that they’ve got there. We’ll see what happens on Sunday night!
Keep on Watching!
R.S.
p.s. I’d love to do a thing where I comment on everything that happens (you know, as it happens), but, since I’m about to go to Florida for a bit, and I won’t have my laptop with me, that’s not happening. However, I might do it hand-written as I watch it, and, if you guys seem to want it, then I’ll post it up!
Posted by rsniderman12
